Consultancy to Identify Area-Specific Issues on Climate Risk on Agricultural Production, Including Suggestions and Feasible Solutions via Expert Interventions at 03 SIDT Area Levels

Overall Objective:

To conduct comprehensive area-specific climate risk assessments on agricultural production systems across the three SIDT areas within the GCF Knuckles Project landscape and to develop evidence-based feasible solutions through expert interventions that strengthen the climate resilience of smallholder and subsistence farming communities.

Specific Objectives:

• Assess and document the current and projected climate risks (including temperature changes rainfall variability droughts floods landslides and extreme weather events) affecting agricultural production in each of the three SIDT areas.
  
• Identify and characterise area-specific vulnerabilities of key production systems (food crops cash crops livestock home gardens plantation agriculture and irrigated farming) to climate hazards in each SIDT area.
  
• Characterize area-specific vulnerabilities related to FLR increasing cropping intensity and intensification of sustainable production systems (both smallholder and largescale) in both upstream and downstream.
  
• Quantify the economic social and environmental impacts of identified climate risks on production capacity yield quality food security sustainable landscape management and livelihood sustainability using appropriate analytical frameworks.
  
• Engage local communities farmers (including women-headed farm families) and expert stakeholders through participatory methods to document indigenous knowledge existing adaptation practices and priority intervention needs.
  
• Develop tailored technically sound and economically feasible climate-smart adaptation solutions for each SIDT area through expert consultations and stakeholder validation workshops.
  
• Create SIDT-level implementation roadmaps with prioritised short-term medium-term and long-term climate adaptation interventions that integrate with the broader GCF Knuckles Project activities.
  
• Produce knowledge products including climate risk maps technical guidance materials training resource inputs and policy briefs to support evidence-based decision-making and project implementation.
  

Scope of the Assignment

The consultant/consultancy firm shall undertake the following tasks across all three SIDT areas:

A. Climate Risk Assessment and Profiling

• Collect and analyse historical climate data (including but not limited to temperature precipitation humidity wind patterns) and available future climate projections specific to each SIDT area using downscaled climate models and datasets from the Department of Meteorology and relevant research institutions.
  
• Identify and rank key climate hazards (erratic rainfall prolonged droughts increased temperatures intense precipitation events hailstorms landslides floods and dry spells) affecting production and landscape management systems in each SIDT area.
  
• Conduct crop-specific and production system-specific vulnerability assessments covering major farming systems in each area including paddy vegetables spices (pepper cinnamon clove nutmeg) plantation crops (tea rubber cocoa) livestock and home garden systems.
  
• Map interdependencies between production systems and ecosystem services (water regulation soil conservation pollination biodiversity microclimate regulation) in each SIDT area.
  
• Develop GIS-based hazard maps vulnerability maps and composite climate risk maps for each SIDT area.
  
• Quantify potential economic losses and productivity impacts under different climate scenarios including estimation of crop yield losses income reductions and livelihood disruptions.
  

B. Participatory Community-Level Assessments

• Conduct participatory risk assessments with smallholder and subsistence farmers including women-headed farm families in all three SIDT areas using Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) techniques.
  
• Facilitate Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) with farmer groups womens groups youth groups Farmer Organisations and community-based organisations to document local perceptions of climate change observed impacts on production and existing coping and adaptation strategies.
  
• Conduct Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with Agricultural Instructors Divisional Secretariat officials irrigation engineers agrarian service officers and other relevant institutional stakeholders in all SIDT areas.
  
• Document indigenous and traditional knowledge on climate patterns seasonal calendars early warning indicators and locally developed adaptation practices.
  
• Assess the current capacity resource constraints and institutional support available to farming communities for adopting climate-smart practices.
  
• Prepare comprehensive socio-economic profiles of climate vulnerability for different farmer typologies (smallholders subsistence women-headed youth) in each SIDT area.
  

C. Expert Consultations and Solution Development

• Organise and facilitate expert consultation workshops (minimum one per SIDT area total of three workshops) bringing together climate scientists agricultural researchers irrigation engineers soil scientists agronomists agricultural economists and local knowledge holders.
  
• Engage subject matter experts to develop area-specific technical solutions addressing priority climate risks covering: climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices improved water management and irrigation efficiency soil and water conservation techniques crop diversification and climate-resilient variety selection agroforestry integration livestock management improvements and post-harvest loss reduction.
  
• Conduct cost-benefit analyses and feasibility assessments for proposed interventions in each SIDT area considering resource constraints and capacities of target farming communities.
  
• Develop detailed implementation guidelines for recommended interventions tailored to the specific agro-ecological socio-economic and institutional contexts of each SIDT area.
  
• Design monitoring indicators and an evaluation framework for tracking adoption and effectiveness of proposed climate adaptation interventions.
  
• Facilitate stakeholder validation workshops to present draft findings and refine recommendations based on feedback from farmers government agencies and technical experts.
  

D. Linkages with Other Project Activities under the Workplan

The consultant shall ensure that the climate risk assessment findings and recommendations are directly linked to and supportive of the following inter-connected project activities:

• Activity 2.1.1.1 (Interagency Committee): Provide climate risk intelligence to inform integrated planning sessions and progress review workshops of the district-level interagency committees in 4 districts.
  
• Activity 2.1.1.2 (Farmer Identification and Baseline): Contribute climate vulnerability profiles to the farmer database and web-based farmer profiles being developed across 4 districts enabling targeted climate adaptation support.
  
• Activity 2.1.1.3 (Value Chain Assessment): Integrate climate risk information into domestic value chain maps and green market assessments to identify climate-resilient value chain opportunities and inform e-marketing initiatives.
  
• Activity 2.1.1.5 (Climate Risk Strategies for Youth): Provide the evidence base for developing and implementing strategies to overcome climate risk in agriculture and promote innovation among youth through two programmes across 4 districts.
  
• Activity 2.1.1.6 (Sustainable Agriculture Training): Inform the design of training curricula farmer field school programmes and practical training materials on climate-smart sustainable agriculture for farmer groups.
  
• Activity 2.1.1.7 (Farmer Group Infrastructure): Guide investment priorities for common infrastructure that enhances climate resilience product quality and post-harvest management for smallholder farmer groups.
  
• Activity 2.1.1.8 (Green Farming Certification): Support the development of green farming certification criteria and monitoring protocols that incorporate climate resilience performance indicators.
  
• Activity 2.1.1.9 (Green Product Promotion): Provide the scientific basis for selecting certifying and promoting climate-resilient green farming products in local and export target markets.
  
• Activity 2.1.1.10 (Market Platforms): Inform the design of comprehensive e-business platforms and market platforms for green farming products with integrated climate risk information for market actors and consumers.
  
• Activity 2.2.3 Guide the establishment and monitoring of eco system services relevant to PES
  
• Activity 3.1.3 Provide scientific evidence to the governance mechanism to guide sustainable landscape management interventions under component 1.
  

E. Knowledge Products and Dissemination

• Prepare comprehensive SIDT-level climate risk assessment reports with actionable prioritised recommendations for each area.
  
• Develop practical toolkits training materials and technical guidance notes for use by extension workers SIDT officers and farmer groups.
  
• Create GIS-based visual resources including hazard maps vulnerability maps risk maps infographics and data visualisations for dissemination and awareness.
  
• Produce policy briefs with strategic recommendations for scaling successful climate adaptation interventions to other areas within and beyond the project landscape.
  
• Present key findings and recommendations at project steering committee meetings and relevant stakeholder forums.