Senior Manager Marketing Analytics Forecaster

About SimpliSafe

Were a high-tech home security company thats passionate about protecting the life youve built and our mission of keeping Every Home Secure. And weve created a culture here that cares just as deeply about the career youre building. Ours is a no ego culture of collaboration and innovation where those seeking their next challenge can find big opportunities and make a huge impact on the lives of all those who we protect. We dont just want you to work here. We want you to grow and thrive here.

Were embracing a hybrid work model that enables our teams to split their time between office and home. Hybrid for us means we expect our teams to come together in our state-of-the-art office on two core days typically Tuesday Wednesday or Thursday working together in person and choosing where they work for the remainder of the week. We all benefit from flexibility and get to use the best of both worlds to get our work done.

Why are we hiring

Well were growing and thriving. So we need smart talented and humble people who share our values to join us as we disrupt the home security space and relentlessly pursue our mission of keeping Every Home Secure.

About the role

SimpliSafe is seeking a highly motivated detail-oriented Senior Manager Marketing Analytics to build maintain and continuously improve forecasts for the companys most critical DTC metrics: sales subscriptions and key unit economics.

This is a high-ownership high-visibility individual contributor role. You will be the primary owner of daily and monthly forecasting and a key contributor to quarterly outlooks and planning. Youll partner with Marketing Finance/FP&A Supply Chain/Operations and Product to ensure forecasts are trusted decision-ready and tightly connected to real business levers.

Youll develop a deep understanding of the end-to-end customer funnel and subscriber lifecycle translate promotions and marketing plans into forecastable drivers and improve accuracy through better models stronger assumptions and systematic error analysis. You will be expected to proactively surface risks/opportunities and provide leadership with clear narratives on what changed why and what to do next.

What youll do

1) Own the forecast (system cadence)

• Own daily and monthly forecasts for: traffic/leads orders activations/installs new subscribers ARPU and revenue.
• Produce and publish weekly/monthly/quarterly forecast updates with clear assumptions versioning and stakeholder-ready outputs.
• Maintain a driver tree that connects controllable inputs (media promos pricing channel mix) to outcomes (sales subscribers revenue).

2) Build driver-based models that leadership can trust

• Build and maintain forecasting models (time series causal drivers) that incorporate seasonality promo calendars pricing/offer changes channel mix and operational constraints.
• Layer assumption-driven adjustments on top of model outputs when business context changes (new promo mechanics product launches macro shifts) and document the why.
• Develop scenario plans (base/upside/downside) and sensitivities for media spend promo depth pricing changes and macro/competitive shifts.

3) Forecast marketing impact lead media measurement (incrementality-first)

• Translate marketing plans into forecast inputs: spend by channel expected reach/response lags saturation/diminishing returns.
• Incorporate incrementality learnings (A/B geo lift tests) and/or MMM/MTA outputs into response curves and forecast driversexplicitly separating correlated performance from expected incremental impact.
• Partner on media measurement and marketing performance analytics: design and analyze incrementality tests (A/B holdouts geo/lift) partner on MMM/MTA and translate results into response curves CAC/ROAS benchmarks and planning assumptions.
• Diagnose funnel shifts (conversion approval attach) and lifecycle shifts (retention/churn) and explain performance in plain language.

4) Own Direct P&L tie-outs and performance attribution

• Own reporting that ties operating forecasts to Direct P&L outcomes (sales subscription revenue and unit economics) including clear bridges of forecast vs actuals.
• Ensure consistent metric definitions and reconciliations across systems (billing marketing finance) with an audit-friendly methodology and change log.
• Provide leadership with a tight forecast vs actuals story: what moved what drove it and what actions are recommended.

5) Innovate and improve forecast accuracy over time

• Own forecast performance tracking (e.g. WAPE/MAPE bias) and run root-cause error decomposition by channel/promo/segment/horizon.
• Implement improvements: better features/drivers segmentation/cohorts hierarchical forecasts improved promo pull-forward treatment anomaly detection/alerting and automation.
• Partner with Analytics Engineering to improve pipeline reliability speed and data qualityreducing manual effort and increasing trust.

How success is measured

• Forecast accuracy improves over time (lower error and bias) across sales subscription and unit economics at daily/monthly/quarterly horizons.
• Media measurement testing enablement: support team-wide measurement and testing initiatives for media investments translating results into planning assumptions and forecast updates.
• Forecast methodology innovation: stronger driver tree better segmentation improved promo and media response modeling monitoring/alerting and more automation.
• Leadership impact: recognized as a go-to resource for business performance narratives risk/opportunity surfacing and decision support.
• Adoption trust: forecasts are the planning source of truth with consistent cadence reliable tie-outs and fewer shadow forecasts.

Technical qualifications (must-haves)

• Bachelors degree in a quantitative field (Statistics Mathematics Economics Computer Science Operations/Supply Chain Business Analytics). Masters/MBA preferred.
• 7 years in forecasting planning or advanced analytics (with exposure to marketing measurement/analytics); strong preference for DTC and/or subscription businesses.
• Advanced SQL and Python are required (complex data extraction transformation modeling automation reproducible analysis).
• Strong forecasting toolkit: time series regression/causal modeling scenario/sensitivity modeling; experience with hierarchical forecasting a plus.
• Strong grasp of marketing effectiveness measurement (incrementality attribution limitations media response saturation).
• Experience analyzing experiments (A/B holdouts geo tests) and translating results into planning assumptions.
• Strong Excel/Google Sheets skills for stakeholder-ready scenario models.
• BI proficiency (Tableau preferred) for both dashboard building and self-serve reporting.

Qualitative qualifications

• Executive-ready communicator turns complex modeling into clear decisions tradeoffs and recommendations.
• Strong business judgment in DTC/subscription mechanics: funnel dynamics subscriber lifecycle pricing/promotions and operational constraints that affect realized demand and revenue.
• Self-starter with high ownership independently identifies problems/opportunities drives work to completion and escalates risks early.
• Thrives in ambiguity defines problems builds structure and delivers on a cadence without being micromanaged.
• Influences without authority builds alignment across Marketing Finance Operations Product and Engineering.
• Process-minded: builds repeatable systems documentation and governance others will use.

What Values Youll Share

• Customer Obsessed - Building deep empathy for our customers putting them at the core of our work and developing strong long-term relationships with them.
• Aim High - Always challenging ourselves and others to raise the bar.
• No Ego - Maintaining a no job too small attitude and an open inclusive and humble style.
• One Team - Taking a highly collaborative approach to achieving success.
• Lift As We Climb - Investing in developing others and helping others around us succeed.
• Lean & Nimble - Working with agility and efficiency to experiment in an often ambiguous environment.

What We Offer

• A mission- and values-driven culture and a safe inclusive environment where you can build grow and thrive
• A comprehensive total rewards package that supports your wellness and provides security for SimpliSafers and their families (For more information on our total rewards please click here)
• Free SimpliSafe system and professional monitoring for your home.
• Employee Resource Groups (ERGs) that bring people together give opportunities to network mentor and develop and advocate for change.

The target annual base pay range for this role is $160000 to $235000.

This target annual base pay range represents our good-faith estimate of what we expect to pay for this role. We use a market-based compensation approach to set our target annual base pay ranges and make adjustments annually. We carefully tailor individual compensation packages including base pay taking into consideration employees job-related skills experience qualifications work location and other relevant business factors.

Beyond base pay we offer a Total Rewards package that may include participation in our annual bonus program equity and other forms of compensation in addition to a full range of medical retirement and lifestyle benefits. More details can be found here.

Were committed to fair and equitable pay practices as well as pay transparency. We regularly review our programs to ensure they remain competitive and aligned with our values.

We wholeheartedly embrace and actively seek applications from all individuals no matter how they identify. We are committed to cultivating a diverse and inclusive workplace and we believe our work is enriched when we incorporate a multitude of perspectives backgrounds and experiences. We want everyone who works here to thrive and contribute to not only our mission of keeping every home secure but also to making our workplace safe and supportive for others. If a reasonable accommodation may be needed to fully participate in the job application or interview process to perform the essential functions of a position or to receive other benefits and privileges of employment please contact .