Lead Forecasting (fmd)

Workload: 100%

Shape the forecasts that power our trading decisions. Join us to turn wind solar consumption and price forecasts into measurable trading and risk outcomes across the Nordic power markets.

What you will do:

• Own the end-to-end quality of forecasts used by the Physical Trading Desk wind solar consumption and production forecasts and price forecasts for ancillary services imbalance and spot markets

• Define forecast-quality KPIs monitor performance continuously and lead root-cause analysis when forecasts miss the mark

• Develop and maintain ensemble methods that combine internal models and vendor forecasts to maximise accuracy and commercial value

• Build and operationalize statistical and ML forecasting models together with Intraday/Quant Physical Operations and IT including monitoring and fallback logic for live systems

• Manage relationships with external forecast and weather-data vendors benchmark their performance and lead build-vs-buy decisions

• Take part in the rolling day-ahead trading schedule including weekends and public holidays to stay close to how forecasts are used in live trading decisions

What you bring & who you are:

• A masters degree (or equivalent) in a highly quantitative field such as physics mathematics/statistics meteorology engineering data science or computer science

• Experience in forecasting quantitative analytics or data science ideally within energy or power markets

• Strong knowledge of statistical/ML forecasting methods including time series analysis probabilistic forecasting and ensemble/meta-forecasting

• Programming skills in Python and SQL; experience with Git and Azure DevOps is an advantage

• A commercial mindset you connect forecast quality directly to trading outcomes and risk and communicate technical concepts clearly to traders and senior management

• Hands-on experience with wind and solar forecasting; prior exposure to the Vitec Aiolos forecasting suite is an advantage

• Fluent in English; a Nordic language (Swedish Norwegian Finnish or Danish) is an advantage

• Even if you dont meet every point wed love to hear from you especially if youre a strong communicator who enjoys mentoring colleagues and building forecasting competence across a team

About the team:

Youll join a close-knit team at the heart of our Physical Trading Desk in Malmö working alongside traders quants and engineers who value curiosity collaboration and diverse perspectives.

At Axpo Group we are dedicated to fostering a culture of non-discrimination tolerance and inclusion. As an equal opportunity employer we welcome applications regardless of race and ethnicity gender identity and expression sexual orientation age disability as well as socioeconomic cultural and religious background. We are committed to ensuring a respectful and inclusive recruiting process and workplace for everyone.