Postdoctoral Researcher in Damage Functions, Building Back Better and Early Warning (Pillar 4)

Are you interested in the empirical foundations of flood damage modelling and keen to translate that knowledge into practical strategies for insurers to reduce losses through early warning and smarter recovery Are you motivated to combine claims data experiments and risk modelling to contribute to a more resilient built environment in the Netherlands

We are looking for a postdoctoral researcher to improve damage functions for buildings in the Netherlands and to quantify the effectiveness of earlywarning and buildingbackbetter strategies in reducing insured losses. The 2021 floods in Limburg showed that existing damage models severely underestimate actual damage for shallow inundations your research will close that gap.

About FIRM

Flood Insurance and Risk Management (FIRM) is a fiveyear research programme () funded by TKI Deltatechnologie NationaleNederlanden and contributions from more than 10 partners from academia the financial sector engineering consultancies and government. The central aim of FIRM is to estimate flood and water nuisance risk information as realistically as possible and to make it suitable for use in the financial sector.

FIRM consists of four substantive research pillars and a work package on knowledge transfer. This vacancy concerns a postdoctoral position within Pillar 4. You will work closely with the PhD candidates in the other pillars and will be supervised by researchers from the University of Amsterdam and from the sector.

Based on claims data from Limburg the standard Dutch Damage and Casualty Module (Schade en Slachtoffermodule SSM) appears to underestimate structural damage to residential buildings at water depths of a few decimeters up to one meter. The 2021 events also showed that early warning can substantially reduce damage at relatively low water depths. There is considerable uncertainty around these damage functions and around the effects of such measures. This postdoc project addresses these gaps. The research consists of:

• Develop a new dataset of observed damages and physical conditions based on insurance claims and deriving improved statistically robust damage functions for residential buildings under extreme precipitation for damage models;
• Modelling and quantifying the potential for flood risk reduction through buildingbackbetter measures at the object level (such as floodresistant materials and improved drainage);
• Designing and evaluating experiments to measure the effectiveness of targeted warning messages to policyholders and developing a quantitative framework for damage reduction compared to generic government warnings;
• Contribute to knowledge transfer to the sector.

Main duties and responsibilities:

This is a postdoctoral position. You will work independently on an ambitious research agenda and collaborate closely with the FIRM PhD candidates NationaleNederlanden and other partners.

• Designing and implementing a data collection protocol for flood damage observations in collaboration with NationaleNederlanden and the Dutch Association of Insurers;
• Deriving improved damage functions for residential buildings under extreme precipitation with attention to explanatory variables beyond water depth;
• Quantifying the riskreduction potential and costeffectiveness of buildingbackbetter measures at the object level;
• Designing conducting and evaluating earlywarning experiments;
• Presenting at international conferences and publishing in leading peerreviewed journals;
• Contributing to knowledge dissemination activities with sector partners;
• Contributing to teaching activities (approximately 20% of your time) including tutorials and supervision of Masters theses.

This is an interdisciplinary project that combines empirical damage modelling statistical analysis experimental research and actuarial science. We realize that candidates will usually have expertise in one of these fields and ask for a genuine interest in the others.

• A PhD (completed or to be completed before September 2026) in Civil Engineering Hydrology Actuarial Science Econometrics Applied Statistics or a related field;
• Experience with statistical modelling and regression analysis applied to damage or loss data;
• Experience with programming (Python or R) and working with large datasets;
• Ability to design and evaluate field experiments or quasiexperimental studies is an asset;
• Strong written and oral communication skills; ability to collaborate with stakeholders from the insurance sector;
• Fluency in English is essential. Proficiency in Dutch is an asset;
• Independence and drive to manage a focused twoyear research project.

Applications that do not satisfy all listed requirements will not be taken into consideration.

Supervisors: Prof. dr. Bas Kolen (UvA HKV) Dr. Inez Zwetsloot (UvA)

Pillar 4 is a postdoctoral position not a PhD position. We offer:

• A temporary employment contract for 38 hours per week for a duration of 2 years (with a probationary period of 2 months) preferably starting on 1 September 2026. The UFO profile Researcher 4 applies;
• A gross monthly salary between 3706 and 5760 (scale 10) depending on education and experience excluding 8% holiday allowance and 8.3% yearend bonus. The 30% ruling may apply to nonDutch candidates;
• An ambitious international and collegial research environment within the Actuarial Science and Mathematical Finance research group at the Amsterdam School of Economics in the heart of Amsterdam;
• A position in a large national research consortium with direct access to unique insurance claims data and hydraulic model sets;
• Collaboration with leading financial institutions and water management organizations with regular opportunities to present findings to practitioners;

The collective labouragreement of Dutch universities applies.

The UvA has an extensive package of fringe benefits including:

• 29 days holiday with full employment & extra holidays between Christmas and the New Year;
• Excellent work (from home) facilities;
• reimbursement of commuting expenses;
• pension accrual with ABP;
• In addition the UvA offers excellent study and development opportunities and encourages employees to continue their professional development;
• You may participate in the open UvA lectures with which you can earn up to 30 credits per year.

The University of Amsterdam (UvA) is the largest university in the Netherlands and ranks among the top universities in Europe. With over 42000 students 6000 staff and 3000 PhD candidates the UvA is an intellectual hub driven by a culture of curiosity.

The UvA is an equalopportunity employer. We value diversity and are committed to creating an inclusive environment for everyone.

About UvA Economics and Business

Education and research at UvA Economics and Business (EB) covers a wide range of fields that includes economics data science business administration business analytics accountancy control actuarial science econometrics finance and entrepreneurship. This is organised in 2 Schools: the Amsterdam Business School (ABS) and the Amsterdam School of Economics (ASE). Over 7000 students are enrolled in our UvA Economics and Business programmes and around 500 employees provide education and support.
The Amsterdam School of Economics (ASE) enjoys international recognition for its research in actuarial science econometrics mathematical finance and quantitative economics.
The vacancy is within the Quantitative Economics section of the ASE which is responsible for teaching most quantitative economics related courses at the undergraduate and graduate level. The section produces internationally acclaimed research and covers three different research programs: Actuarial Science & Mathematical Finance Econometrics and Equilibrium Expectations & Dynamics (CeNDEF).

Find more information about Economics and Business on more information about the Amsterdam School of Economics on .

Find more information about the Quantitative Economics section here.

Do you recognize yourself in the profile and are you interested in the position We are curious to hear from you and look forward to receiving your application.

Applications must be submitted via the UvA vacancy portal and should include:

• A motivation letter (maximum 1 page) explaining why you are interested in this specific pillar and outlining your relevant background;
• A full curriculum vitae;
• Transcripts of Bachelors and Masters degrees;
• Names and contact details of two academic referees (this may include Masters thesis supervisors).

Applications that do not satisfy all listed requirements will not be taken into consideration.

For substantive questions about the position please contact Prof. dr. Bas Kolen ().

Also important!

• We would like to receive a cover letter and resume as a pdf file.
• The response period closes on 17 September 2026. Applications that we receive after the response deadline that are not sent through the apply button or are not complete we unfortunately cannot consider.
• The first round of interviews will take place during the week commencing 5 October 2026.
• In case of equal suitability internal candidates will be given priority.