Manager Loss Forecasting

Overview

Who we are

To save time applying Toyota does not offer sponsorship of job applicants for employment-based visas or any other work authorization for this position at this time.

These positions are based at the Toyota Headquarters in Plano TX.

Who were looking for

TFSB is a major contributor to TFS profitability and is entering an exciting new phase of growth expanding both its product portfolio and privatelabel business lines. Your models will shape how we price reserve and grow responsibly. Youll own the CECL loss forecasting engine for a national auto finance bankbuilding models discovering signal automating monitoring and turning complex outputs into clear decisions for senior leaders

The Manager Loss Forecasting leads the endtoend design development and continuous improvement of Toyota Financial Savings Banks CECLcompliant allowance for credit losses (ACL) models across consumer and commercial portfolios. The role combines handson modeling (feature engineering champion/challenger development backtesting and performance monitoring) with executivefacing insight generation that directly informs capital planning pricing portfolio strategy and emergingrisk decisions.

Partnering with Accounting Compliance Data Science Data & Analytics Finance Information Digital Systems and Treasury this leader advances a modern analytics roadmapstrengthening forecast accuracy automation and explainabilitywhile meeting all governance expectations (SOX documentation model use audit support). The Manager mentors a team of 15 analysts serves as the primary bridge between Credit Risk leadership and external stakeholders (including internal control and audit) and helps drive strategic initiatives such as the MultiTenant Model Impairment Studio and Enterprise Data Platform adoption.

What youll be doing

Build & evolve loss forecasting models

• Lead champion/challenger development for CECL ACL forecasting across consumer & commercial portfolios: feature engineering model selection (statistical & ML) stability tests sensitivity analysis and backtesting. Translate model results into business actions that impact reserves pricing and portfolio strategy.

Monitoring analytics & automation

• Design productiongrade monitoring for inputs/outputs data quality drift and performance; create executiveready dashboards; and automate quarterclose analytics and reporting.

Executive storytelling & partnership

• Deliver concise visual insights to senior leadership; advise on trend drivers and forward risks; lead crossfunctional readouts with Accounting Finance Treasury Data Science and Compliance.

Data partnerships & pipeline readiness

• Work with Data & Analytics and Information Digital Systems to improve data accessibility lineage and reliability for modeling. Support enterprise data platform adoption and related initiatives.

Governance & audit

• Execute key SOX controls maintain thorough documentation and present to internal/external audit each quarter to ensure timely wellsupported closes.
  

What you bring

• Four-Year College Degree (BA or BSinComputer Science StatisticsAnalyticsActuarial Science MathematicsFinanceor related field.)
• At least 5-10 years of experience working in credit risk at a Bank or Lending institution.
• Handson modeling experience in Python/SQL and building productionready analytics with clear documentation and version control.
• Demonstrated experience turning complex model output into concise visual executive insights.
• Experience communicating and collaborating across technical and nontechnical partners; with the ability to lead through influence.

Added bonus if you have

• Advanced Degree: Finance Operations Research Data Science
• Background in consumer lending or financial services (auto strongly preferred).
• 10 years of experience working within credit risk modeling (PD/LGD/EAD) CECL/IFRS 9 stress testing macroconditioning and scenario analysis.
• Experience with model risk governance and audit: documentation challenger benchmarking SOX/controls and engagement with internal/external audit.
• Experience mentoring or managing data scientists/analysts; comfortable overseeing concurrent priorities and crossteam deliverables.

Belonging at Toyota

Our success begins and ends with our people. We embrace all perspectives and value unique human experiences. Respect for all is our North Star. Toyota is proud to have 10 different Business Partnering Groups across 100 different North American chapter locations that support team members efforts to dream do and grow without questioning that they belong.

Applicants for our positions are considered without regard to race ethnicity national origin sex sexual orientation gender identity or expression age disability religion military or veteran status or any other characteristics protected by law.

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