Superforecaster

1. Role Overview

Mercor is partnering with a leading AI lab on a high-impact research initiative focused on improving AI systems long-range reasoning and predictive capabilities. Were seeking elite superforecastersespecially those affiliated with institutions like the Good Judgment Project Swift Centre Rand Forecasting Initiative (RFI) or the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF)to contribute structured high-quality forecasts across domains such as geopolitics macroeconomics and global events. This is a rare opportunity to collaborate with top experts and researchers shaping the future of AI forecasting models.

2. Key Responsibilities

• Deliver calibrated evidence-backed forecasts on complex real-world questions

• Document forecasting rationale methodology and sources with clarity and structure

• Participate in peer review and collaborative forecast refinement

• Advise on prompt quality scoring frameworks and resolution criteria

• Support the evaluation of AI-generated forecasts against human benchmarks

3. Ideal Qualifications

• Recognized affiliation with a forecasting organization (e.g. GJP Swift Centre RFI IIF)

• Demonstrated forecasting accuracy and calibration over multiple years

• Experience contributing to high-stakes or public forecasting tournaments

• Strong analytical probabilistic and written communication skills

• Comfortable working independently and asynchronously on structured tasks

4. More About the Opportunity

• Remote and asynchronous work on your own schedule

• Expected commitment: 1020 hours/week

5. Compensation & Contract Terms

• $140245/hour for U.S.-based applicantt

• Youll be classified as an independent contractor

6. Application Process

• Submit your Mercor profile or resume to get started

• Youll complete a brief form

• Well follow up within a few days with next steps

7. About Mercor

• Mercor is a talent marketplace that connects top experts with leading AI labs and research organizations

• Our investors include Benchmark General Catalyst Adam DAngelo Larry Summers and Jack Dorsey

• Thousands of professionals across domains like law creatives engineering and research have joined Mercor to work on frontier projects shaping the next era of AI