HobbyistStatistical Forecaster

Berlin - Germany

Monthly Salary: Not Disclosed

Posted on: Yesterday

Vacancies: 1 Vacancy

Job Summary

1. Role Overview

Mercor is collaborating with a leading AI lab on a research project aimed at advancing machine reasoning and predictive accuracy. Were seeking independent forecastersparticularly those active in forecasting competitions and marketplacesto generate high-quality predictions across domains like economics finance and geopolitics. This is a unique opportunity to apply your statistical intuition and forecasting experience toward improving next-generation AI systems.

2. Key Responsibilities

Produce structured probabilistic forecasts across diverse domains
Clearly articulate forecasting logic assumptions and data inputs
Draw on models heuristics and statistical reasoning to inform predictions
Collaborate with a global network of forecasters and AI researchers
Provide feedback on prompt quality resolution criteria and forecast design

3. Ideal Qualifications

Active participation in forecasting platforms (e.g. Metaculus Polymarket Kalshi Numerai Kaggle)
High leaderboard placement or notable tournament track record
Strong statistical reasoning and ability to work with probabilistic frameworks
Comfortable documenting thought processes and communicating clearly in writing
Self-driven and intellectually curious

4. More About the Opportunity

Remote and asynchronous work on your own schedule
Expected commitment: 1020 hours/week

5. Compensation & Contract Terms

$105140/hour for U.S.-based applicants
Youll be classified as an independent contractor

6. Application Process

Submit your Mercor profile or resume to get started
Youll complete a brief form and may be asked to complete a sample forecast
Well follow up within a few days with next steps

7. About Mercor

Mercor is a talent marketplace that connects top experts with leading AI labs and research organizations
Our investors include Benchmark General Catalyst Adam DAngelo Larry Summers and Jack Dorsey
Thousands of professionals across domains like law creatives engineering and research have joined Mercor to work on frontier projects shaping the next era of AI

1. Role Overview Mercor is collaborating with a leading AI lab on a research project aimed at advancing machine reasoning and predictive accuracy. Were seeking independent forecastersparticularly those active in forecasting competitions and marketplacesto generate high-quality predictions across dom...